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Bitcoin Transactions

2015-11-04 - prediction, good-judgement-project, bitcoin

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

question

Simple Estimate (based on extrapolation of graph)

• Averaged over 90 days, the transaction volume is climbing consistently. Chart
• But, it goes sideways or slightly down in periods of up to 6 months long, which could leave it below 125, so I will say 25% chance of below 125.
• Going above 250 would represent 100k rise, which hasn’t happen in the past. 25%
• The remaining probabilty is 50%.

Can we break it down further?

• Who is making these transactions? What is causing the increase?
• Some represent a stress test of the network
• rest is a wide demographic
• How many transactions per day can bitcoin handle
  • Currently 7 transactions per second which is 600K transactions in day, so does not affect prediction

Other predictors

• other predictors on gjp have a more extreme prediction around 10/75/15