November 4, 2015 · prediction good-judgement-project bitcoin
What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?
Simple Estimate (based on extrapolation of graph)
- Averaged over 90 days, the transaction volume is climbing consistently. Chart
- But, it goes sideways or slightly down in periods of up to 6 months long, which could leave it below 125, so I will say 25% chance of below 125.
- Going above 250 would represent 100k rise, which hasn’t happen in the past. 25%
- The remaining probabilty is 50%.
Can we break it down further?
- Who is making these transactions? What is causing the increase?
- Some represent a stress test of the network
- rest is a wide demographic
- How many transactions per day can bitcoin handle
- Currently 7 transactions per second which is 600K transactions in day, so does not affect prediction
Other predictors
- other predictors on gjp have a more extreme prediction around 10/75/15